By Steve BermanBill O’Reilly is correct in focusing his attention on next Tuesday’s debate. The first direct meeting of the two candidates for president will likely decide the election. I don’t like to make predictions like this, but think about it.
- The debate takes place 56 days before Election Day. That’s well within the “sprint” period that defines who gets the momentum swing.
- Philadelphia is the host city. Pennsylvania early voting begins only six (6–count’em!) days after the debate.
- Minnesota and Virginia early voting starts September 20, 10 days after the debate. Now we know how Minnesota will go, and likely how Virginia will go, but the polls in those states will matter very much in determining who gets the momentum push.
- Both Trump and Harris are going to go for the “zinger” – the memorable line that sticks with voters. Like Reagan’s “there you go again.”
- Both candidates get the define their policies; who communicates them better could connect at the ballot box.
On tax policy, Harris wants to squeeze corporations and high net worth individuals, yet add $3 trillion to the federal debt. She will chase capital away from U.S. markets as rich people have a lot of options where to put their money. Trump wants to lower regulation (and therefore regulation costs), reducing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%; Harris wants to raise it to 28%, and tax “unrealized capital gains” — money invested in the market that has produced a paper gain but not an actual gain, which happens when the stock is sold. Trump need only say that Harris wants to tax people on what they don’t have, even if they’re rich, but the rich are who pay payrolls, build factories, and fund inventions.
Harris will harp on how unfair things are for the poor. Trump could ask how many of “the poor” she personally knows. It goes on and on.
This is a close election. The final momentum swing will take place between September 10 and election day on November 5. As in 2016, who wins Pennsylvania and Georgia probably takes the whole enchilada. The latest polls show Pennsylvania is a statistical tie. Georgia is a statistical tie. The election will likely be decided by tiny margins in these key states. It could literally come down to a few counties.
Momentum is everything. Harris got hers on vibes. Now she’s got to sell her policies, and stop pretending she hasn’t been part of the administration that controls the federal executive branch for the last four years. What kind of change is it to go from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris? Which of Biden’s policies need to be changed? I don’t know, and I don’t think Harris wants us to know.
Trump only needs a little momentum to win Georgia. He has (lukewarm) support from Gov. Brian Kemp, along with Kemp’s extensive ground operation. In Pennsylvania, it’s a toss-up. Israel and Gaza are likely to be a fulcrum issue. Did you see Sen. John Fetterman’s tweet about Meta (Facebook) oversight board’s decision that “from the river to the sea” isn’t a call for genocide? (Language warning.)
Fetterman, a Democrat, is a friend of Israel. Harris says she’s a friend of Israel, but what has she done? Trump moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, something that every president since Bill Clinton had multiple opportunities to do (by a law passed during Clinton’s term) but they all punted or wilted. Who will outline a plan to help Israel end its war with Hamas, by winning it? Not Harris–she just wants a “deal” that her own administration has failed to achieve.
It’s going to be about momentum, and which candidate can connect policies with voters. Trump has an opportunity to make that push. If he fails, he will lose the momentum, and the election. If he succeeds, it’s unlikely Harris can recover.
You might not like this kind of “democracy” but it’s how our founders wanted our nation to run. It’s better to have a moveable set of “key” states decide an election (remember when it was Ohio, and Florida?) than have a permanent imprimatur on California and New York. Democrats want a kind of democracy that gives them a forever majority. The founders knew better. This year it’s Georgia and Pennsylvania. Next election it could be another set of states (and probably will be). The rest of the country matters less (if at all). Sorry–if you’re voting in Massachusetts, your vote is not important this year.
But if you’re voting in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, or Butler, your vote is supremely important.
As for Trump’s strategy: “I’m gonna to let her talk.“
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face” Trump quipped, quoting former boxing champion Mike Tyson.
ABC News
Harris might talk herself right out of this election. Or Trump might not be able to resist, and he might open his mouth and harm his campaign. We just don’t know. But it’s definitely worth focusing on next Tuesday, because this is where the election could be won.
Follow Steve on Twitter @stevengberman.
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