By Steve BermanThe moment I heard that the chopper carrying Iran’s president was missing in the mountainous region between Azerbaijan and northern Iran, I presumed he was dead. And he’s definitely very dead, as the chopper has been found–incinerated.
Actually, the first I heard of it was from an account on X/Twitter called @MossadIL, Mossad commentary (satirical). These folks keep up with such things and reported the missing chopper yesterday morning before any real search and rescue efforts got underway.
Ebrahim Raisi has been very dead for at least a day, and now they’ve got what’s left of his body. Meanwhile, the usual suspects are knitting conspiracies about the chopper being shot down. Who would do such a thing? The Israelis? How could Israel get into the mountains of northern Iran? Americans? Same. Russians? Certainly could, but why? An inside job in Iran? Perhaps, but again, what’s the motive?
Raisi was well known as a tyrant, and even spoken of to be Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s successor. Of course, now that will change, but probably not much, since all of Iran’s leadership is committed to religious extremism and authoritarian rule.
Sometimes the best explanation for things like this is the simplest one: Occam’s Razor. The mountainous region between Azerbaijan and northern Iran is treacherous flying for a chopper, and in the fog, it’s very possible to end up smashed into the side of a mountain. Think Kobe Bryant.
As much as many Iran-watchers might be celebrating Raisi’s death (and yes, good riddance!), he could end up replaced with someone worse. An interesting report from @MossadIL overnight might provide a clue.
Iran is not a great place to be a senior official during a political shakeup. People tend to die easily in places where life is not valued.
In the end, the world has rid itself of one more terrible tyrant, and nobody gets to take credit.
Also, the Russians, using Iranian drones and missiles, have launched a new offensive into Kharkiv, which they lost early in the Ukraine war. President Biden’s strategy is working (for him). The Ukrainians don’t get to attack Russia with the kind of force required to win, and the Russians get to slowly digest Ukraine one square kilometer at a time, leaving no building standing and no person living. I think it’s wrong for some Republicans to block needed aid, which will cause more death and misery; but it’s a consequence of the Biden administration’s approach to every war around the world. Half measures, tough talk, then walk it all back.
Whoever ends up running Iran under Khamenei might end up making that nation a nuclear power, while Israel is distracted in its own intractable wars. The leaders of Russia, China, Turkey (a NATO ally) and the rest of the axis of evil have communicated their insincere condolences. They’ve all got their agendas as the politics play out in a deadly game. But Raisi didn’t die by anyone’s hand; just another victim of the fickle finger of fate and bad helicopter maintenance.
Follow Steve on Twitter @stevengberman.
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