By Steve BermanThe New York Times broke a story last night that Israeli intelligence had obtained Hamas’ battle plan, at least a year before the horrifying attacks on 10/7. Normally, I take reports from mainstream media about Israel with a handful of salt, given that much of it is slanted and sloppy. But I fully believe this one.
The key paragraph is here:
Underpinning all these failures was a single, fatally inaccurate belief that Hamas lacked the capability to attack and would not dare to do so. That belief was so ingrained in the Israeli government, officials said, that they disregarded growing evidence to the contrary.
When a government is as deadlocked as Israel’s has been for the last four years, with Prime Minister Netanyahu defending himself in court from corruption charges, andseemingly-endless elections as coalitions form and then fail, it’s easy to believe that when intelligence surfaces regarding Hamas, it would not be on the top of the “important” pile. This is especially true because Hamas engaged in a years-long ruse to lull Israeli officials into believing it had moved away from bold attack plans.
Most Israelis will believe the report coming out of the NYT. How could such a well-developed intelligence apparatus such as Israel possesses, with the army, the Shin-Bet (Israel’s internal intelligence) and the legendary Mossad, not have picked up all the signals regarding Hamas plans, and even observed terrorists practicing the operation step by step?
Of course they knew.
But that doesn’t mean they knew, and believed it, and still did nothing. To harbor that thought, you’d have to believe the conspiratorial whispers that 10/7 was an “inside job,” that Israel itself collaborated in the worst act of terror on Israeli soil since the country’s war of independence was won. You’d have to will yourself to believe that some powerful Israelis valued their own influence, power, and plans, even their religious beliefs in a coming messianic age, over the lives and families of their countrymen. You’d have to believe that Israel is shot through with rot, corruption, and traitors.
There are people in America, and of course, around the world, whose hatred of Jews, in the best of times, is only masked by a thin veneer of civility. These people would love to blame Jews—and Israelis—for their own suffering. The Jew-haters are more than happy to believe that Israelis betrayed their own country and people, knowing that a large-scale slaughter was coming, in order to propel their country into a bloody war that may widen and engulf the entire region. It’s true that some far-right elements of Netanyahu’s government believe that conquering the kingdom of Solomon is the destiny of modern Israel. It’s a huge jump to conclude these fringe members of the Knesset would commit treason.
10/7 is Israel’s 9/11. Just like the U.S. “knew” that Al-Qaeda terrorists were planning something “big” before 9/11, Israel “knew” that Gaza-based Hamas was practicing for some large-scale event. Israeli intelligence, before 9/11, warned the FBI and the CIAthat as many as 200 terrorists had slipped into the U.S. and were preparing for a “major assault on the United States.” They warned the operation was against a “large-scale target” and that America would be “very vulnerable.” American intelligence never connected the dots, and there was a pervasive belief that Al-Qaeda didn’t possess the sophistication to pull off such a big attack without us learning of it in advance.
Israeli intelligence, despite having the evidence in front of them, didn’t see the 10/7 attacks coming. Whether you believe the blindness was groupthink, incompetence or hubris, there’s no evidence it was willful, in the sense that people who were aware of the operation simply turned a blind eye. That’s a conspiracy theory, and a dangerous one.
The war has begun again, despite all those who said it couldn’t, like Andrew McCarthy at National Review. The Biden administration is under enormous pressure to force Israel to end the war short of its military goals, but Israel has had a full measure of restraint. On Wednesday, the final day of the ceasefire, Hamas only released eight hostages, instead of the ten Israel required. Hamas is reportedly having difficulty finding further women and children to release because they’ve been passed around to various adjacent terror groups or hidden in places Hamas leadership have difficulty reaching; or perhaps Hamas knows where they are and would rather have Israel bomb them because they’re human shields. I’d believe any of those reasons.
Israeli leadership clearly believes it has extracted all it can reasonably get in terms of hostages, before caving to Hamas’ increasing demands for delays and extra conditions. They believe the window for action was beginning to close rapidly, and that the goals of the military campaign superseded the value of holding back. If you believe that the whole operation was an Israeli conspiracy in the first place, then you’d have to believe that the people giving those orders are truly evil.
They are not evil. They were simply wrong, and were helped in their wrongness by a committed enemy who rejoiced in the barbarism of 10/7. At this point, Israel is committed to destroying Hamas, though it may not be possible. For several generations, extremist Muslims have trained Palestinian youth in Gaza to hate Jews, to desire to murder Jews, and that conquering Israel is the only worthy goal. Fighting the IDF, for a million-or-so young Palestinians, is something they feel they were born to do. Rooting out this hate will take an enormous effort, and isn’t possible while Hamas rules Gaza. In the meantime, Israel will continue to suffer losses and attacks.
How long this war will continue is anyone’s guess. But given the revelations of what Israel knew and when they knew it, it’s likely this will go on for months, if not another year or more. Even if the U.S. turns on Israel, they will continue the war. If there are traitors in the midst of the Israeli people and government, the people will root them out and administer justice. But not before justice—in whatever form Israel can muster—comes to the perpetrators of 10/7.
Follow Steve on Twitter @stevengberman.
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