DEAD HEAT: Latest Projections Have Senate Races Tightening, GOP on the Rise

The Senate may go to the GOP afterall.

According to the latest models from FiveThirtyEight, Democrats and Republicans are in a dead heat to take control of the Senate after the midterm elections.

Nate Silver and Co. simulated the race 40,000 times and a sampling of 100 instances shows that the GOP takes the Senate 46 out of 100 times.

From FiveThirtyEight:

• The Senate is currently a toss-up, with Democrats ever so slightly ahead. The party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win the Senate majority. Republicans’ two best pick-up opportunities are Nevada and Georgia. However, Herschel Walker’s scandals may hurt his chances against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in Pennsylvania, but that race has gotten a lot tighter recently.
• Other Senate races are competitive but have identifiable favorites. For instance, strong Democratic incumbents currently have an edge in Arizonaand New Hampshire. And the Senate races in North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin are also close but will likely result in Republican winners.

The Senate started out as a toss-up when we launched our forecast in June — and after a summer in which political developments mostly played to Democrats’ favor, there is now clear movement back toward Republicans, writes @NateSilver538. https://t.co/FbRj0qPf10

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) October 26, 2022