By Steve BermanSome things that the U.S. press is reporting as fresh news is really about as a fake as claims artificial general intelligence (AGI) is five years away. AGI has always been five years away, and likely always will be. Humans are just too good at self-deception to think we can train digital computers to be smarter than we are. Now, at games, AIs will crush us. But as we’ve seen with the hollow fakery behind self-driving cars, we’re far from anything that won’t kill us before it can draw a proper human hand. Now, for the fake, real news.
Israel suddenly has “cracks” in its leadership during the Gaza war, says the AP. Benny Gantz, part of PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s wartime emergency unity cabinet, is in Washington to meet with U.S. lawmakers. This is barely registered in the Israeli press. Vice President Kamala Harris’ speech urging Israel to accept whatever hostage deal is currently on the table is getting more press there. Among my circle of friends and folks who follow the news, Harris gets no points and anything she says may as well be shouted straight into a Dumpster.
The fact is that Israel has always had “cracks” in its leadership. Netanyahu doesn’t agree with anyone who isn’t interested in keeping him in the PM chair, including Gantz, or Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, or the average Israeli. The truth is that Israeli war leadership has always known that Hamas can’t be defeated in the sense that for every terrorist killed, three more young terrorists will take their place. As long as the money, the weapons, and access to tunnels remains, Hamas will re-emerge after the IDF leaves. Netanyahu’s plan was simply to construct a better wall than the one which didn’t prevent 10/7 (but we designed specifically for that purpose).
In truth, Israel will not get all the hostages back. First, many of them who are on some list or another are dead. Each week, Hamas reveals that one or two hostages, or more, thought to possibly be alive were actually killed on 10/7, or died since. Hamas doesn’t know where all the hostages are, partly because Hamas’ ability to execute command and control has been severely disrupted since the IDF invaded; and partly because Hamas isn’t the kind of organization to keep detailed records of where hostages were taken and who is holding them.
Israeli leadership, and its citizens, are well aware that the “list” of hostages to be released will never be the actual list until the day these victims are reunited with their loved ones. Israel was always going to be faced with this, and any “stretching” of negotiations is only to complete specific military goals, such as destroying as many tunnels and rocket caches as possible. The IDF recently announced that it has destroyed 85% of the tunnels in Khan Younis.
Hamas has its own goals, mostly to obtain the maximum number of terrorists released from Israeli prisons. They need these experienced killers, from which Yahya Sinwar, Hamas current leader in Gaza, hailed. Israel doesn’t want to give up prisoners, many of whom are murderers, but it has always been the policy of Israel to trade up to 10 terrorists in prison for one hostage. Getting down to “lists” is what’s slowing things down, but both sides use this as cover for their real objectives. When both Israel and Hamas are ready, they’ll take what’s on the table. Israeli negotiators already know that Hamas will throw in some last-minute ridiculous demand to test whether Israelis are bluffing. This is simply how these things go, and it’s how it will go this time.
None of this is fresh news; it’s faked up. Except for U.S. airdrops into Gaza. That’s a good idea all around. America is really good at this kind of logistics, and Gazans can’t sneak weapons into aid convoys if the aid convoys aren’t coming in through border crossings. Gazans can’t swarm aid trucks if the aid is dropping from the air. The U.S. sustained all of Berlin for 15 months post WWII. We certainly can make a dent in the starvation washing over Gaza. Kudos to the Biden administration taking a novel approach that’s more than speechifying. We need more airdrops.
The whole thing about Benny Gantz in Washington is more about the inevitability of Netanyahu’s departure. That’s the real news, and as soon as there’s a hostage deal completed, look for a change in Israel’s government. There’s no other reason for the stories in the press.
About Russia and Ukraine. Russia is revving up its springtime mud-soaked initiative to gain a few kilometers of ground here and there, and not give up any strategic points along its front, while draining manpower from Ukraine. This is also not new news, though the Washington Post is covering “divisions” in Ukrainian society. Russia has two main advantages it possessed since the start of the war: one, political unity. Russia is ruled by Vladimir Putin, who brooks no criticism. The closest thing Putin had to opposition was when Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group mercenaries turned toward Moscow. We all saw what happened to Prigozhin. And Alexei Navalny, who suffered “sudden death syndrome” according to BBC reports.
Two, manpower. Ukraine cannot sustain a ground war for years and years. It’s been two years, and the Ukainians are strapped for more people to fight. This isn’t new news. Ukrainians would love to have a super-weapon from the West (like ATACMSand F-16s) that crushes the Russians so troops can cut through to the Sea of Azov and roll back the Russians. But Russia has loaded its front line with minefields so dense they make the Balkans from the 1990s look like open fields. Ukraine does not have an air mobile capability, and also does not possess a force to invade from the sea. The only way in is to slog past the minefields while taking withering artillery fire from Russian batteries, supported by deadly drones and effective anti-aircraft capability.
Putin’s great threat is designed to keep the war between Ukraine and Russia, where eventually, Russia will “win” in the sense it will hold on to the Donbas. Perhaps there will be some kind of breakthrough, and perhaps Russia will continue to lose soldiers at a 10:1 ratio. But even if it does, Putin believes he can politically outlast Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And with the current sentiment in the U.S., he might.
Far from fresh news, this is, again, faked up for American readers to understand that one day we will be at the negotiating table with Putin, sanctions or not. The Ukraine was was winnable, if the U.S. had poured maximum effort during the first year. But the Biden administration was committed to risk management. The risk of the war expanding was considered too high, so offensive weapons were held back. Now that there isn’t much risk of expansion, other than putting foreign boots on the ground in Ukraine, Biden is trying to push more aid to Ukraine, but many Republicans see it as too little too late (or worse, they are MAGA and believe Putin is right).
We can still keep the war going for Ukraine and punish Russia. I am not sure how far that will go. There’s no fresh news here.
Finally, Nikki Haley won a primary. She beat Donald Trump in Washington D.C. by 598 votes, which in the capital city represents a whopping 29.5%. So at least somewhere, there’s a universe where sane Republicans are preferred over MAGA. Tomorrow is Super Tuesday, and Trump plans to slam the door on Haley’s campaign for good. In California, Trump leads by about 50 points. It’s likely Trump will win every state, including Massachusetts (where the GOP has gone surprisingly MAGA, there’s an effort to turn it back to conservative). Alabama, Arkansas, Virginia, Texas and North Carolina are going to be Trump all the way down.
The only news will be when Haley exits the race—and if she doesn’t, what will she say from now until the convention? The only person who might be less consequential than Nikki Haley remaining in the GOP race after losing 874 delegates to Trump in one day would be Kamala Harris.
After tomorrow, we will be in the long stretch to a general election. The fate of Gaza, Ukraine, and of course the festering sore in our cities as the southern border continues to be a political football will rule the news. Just keep in mind, what you see in the news is curated garbage and spoon-fed propaganda more often than not. Maybe they should take their hand at having AI write it?
Follow Steve on Twitter @stevengberman.
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